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January 2006 - Posts

Marketplace/PRI reports that Exxon made historical and record profits for any US company in a quarter, $10B, and that US people are spending more and saving even less, -0.5% overall for 2005 - the lowest level and first below-zero rate since the Great Depression (1933).  Good job, countrymen, a negative savings rate.  ING Direct (4%), Emigrant Direct (4.25%), or HSBC Bank (4.25%) people, use it.

A bit late to the game, but I think it's about time I put money into an oil index as well as my gas tank.  (FYI, not that one, I'm not a Buffet or Soros.)

Here's my random prediction about our collective American psyche: there's going to be a run on late Roman empire philosophies, journals and culture.  We are, as a coworker reminded me, not only an empire, but also one in decline.  Getting people to look beyond their tv screens and the incessent babble of naysayers is really, really tough.  Better dust off my Latin books.

Two movie names I blanked on in a conversation with another coworker: Galaxy Quest and Minority Report.

Google's got a social bookmark feature now, a la del.icio.us and y! web 2.0.  Choice paralysis or aggregation opportunity?

I find that, at this place called "work," I'm more clear on what I want to focus on when I'm not here.  I'm making lists for the weekend, here.

I'll leave you with this commentary from one our archnesmitists, Zawahiri, uncaught, unharmed by a Predator attack, and apparently quite loquacious, just so you didn't read this post in vain:
"US airplanes ... launched a raid on a village in near Peshawar after Eid al-Adha in which 18 Muslim men, women and children were killed in what they call the war against terror"

"They said this was intended to kill myself and four brothers but now the whole world has discovered their lies ..."

"Butcher of Washington, you are not only defeated and a liar, but also a failure. You are a curse on your own nation"

"Bush, do you know where I am? I am among the Muslim masses."

"My second message is to the American people, who are drowning in illusions. I tell you that Bush and his gang are shedding your blood and wasting your money in frustrated adventures"

"The lion of Islam, Sheik Osama bin Laden, may God protect him, offered you a decent exit from your dilemma. But your leaders, who are keen to accumulate wealth, insist on throwing you in battles and killing your souls in Iraq and Afghanistan and – God willing – on your own land."

"The American planes raided in compliance with Musharraf the traitor and his security apparatus, the slave of the Crusaders and the Jews."

"In seeking to kill my humble self and four of my brothers, the whole world has discovered the extent of America's lies and failures and the extent of its savagery in fighting Islam and Muslims,

"Your leaders responded to the initiative of sheik Osama, may God protect him, by saying they don't negotiate with terrorists and that they are winning the war on terror. I tell them: You liars, greedy war mongers, who is pulling out from Iraq and Afghanistan? Us or you? Whose soldiers are committing suicide because of despair? Us or you?"

"You, American mother, if the Pentagon calls to tell you that your son is coming home in a coffin, then remember George Bush. And you, British wife, if the Defence Department calls you to say that your husband is returning crippled and burnt, remember Tony Blair."
That's from Aljazeera. So're these little nuggets:
Elsewhere in the tape - reported but not aired by Aljazeera - al-Zawahiri called on Bush to convert to Islam, telling him that if he does so he will "become a brother in the faith and God will forgive you your sins". He warned Musharraf against cooperation with the Americans, threatening, "Your day of judgement is approaching".
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The public in Pakistan's at a media tipping point: The Northwest Frontier Provinces've put out a unanimous resolution requesting the expulsion of the US Ambassador to Pakistan, John Crocker, condeming the recent missle strikes in Damadola, requesting to refer the incident to the UN Security Council, and demanding an apology from the US.  [Zaman]

We demand the federal government declare US ambassador in Pakistan a persona non grata over the missile attack, which the American forces carried out in Bajur where innocent civilians were killed

According to Al Jazeera, Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Tasnim Aslam said that the government would neither expel U.S. ambassador Ryan Crocker nor seek any apology from Washington. This continues the Musharraf government's tacit support of our actions.

Usually, we don't hear about the protests after Hellfire strikes from our CIA/military teams (or even the Hellfire strikes, themselves) from over the border in Afghanistan into Pakistan that have been going on with some regularity since mid last year.  The January 13th one combined a larger than average civilian death toll, 18, with a stated high-profile target, Al Qaeda's #2 Zawahiri, causing not only the Pakistani media to cover the attack more but also, and more importantly, the US media to cover the incident and the subsequent protests. The Pakistani people have been simmering an anti-Musharraf feeling for a long time, and this incident's allowing a lot of ugly rhetoric to be exposed directly to the American people.

To emphasize the anti-American and anti-Musharraf effect it's having in Pakistan, one only needs to refer to this quote from Pakistani cricketer-turned-politician, Imran Khan, carried in Al Jazeera, as an anti-American protest he lead was turned away by authorities from Bajur province:  "If this unity prevails, we will also remove Musharraf." [Al Jazeera, Ireland Online]

Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, who's currently in Washington meeting with Administration officials and other leaders said yesterday there was no evidence of an Al-Qaeda presence in the village. Aziz said "we have not found one body or one shred of evidence that these people (suspected terrorists) were there." Aziz has requested US to clear airstrikes with the Pakistani government beforehand also continuing the Musharraf government's policy of being limp wristed in their lip service to securing Pakistani sovereignty. Aziz is to meet with President Bush tomorrow. [IHT] Musharraf's government's definitely on-message and appear to be sufficiently pro-America for our military's objectives, but like our own country, Musharraf's domestic battle is getting more difficult. All of the alternatives to Musharraf are decidedly anti-American.

Monday, January 23, 2006
Thousands rally against US
INAYAT QALA: Thousands of angry Pakistanis protested on Sunday against a US air strike that killed civilians, chanting “Long live Osama Bin Laden!” as anti-American rallies in the country entered their second week. About 5,000 demonstrators assembled on a dry riverbed in a mountain market town near the site of the January 13 attack. They also burned effigies of US President Bush. ap
[Daily Times]

Thousands hold anti-US protests in Pakistan over attack, Boston Globe, 01/21/2006
Pakistanis Want US Envoy Expelled, Musharraf Under Fire, Islam Online, 01/23/2006

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The AP is reporting today that Pakistani officials are saying that there were al Qaeda operatives killed or believed to be killed in the Damadola bombing:

  • Midhat Musri al-Sayid Umar aka Abu Khabab al Masri, 52, Egyptian, explosives and poisons expert, suspected of training the suicide bombers who killed 17 soldiers in the USS Cole attack, 2000 (info from seattle post-intelligencer)
  • Abu Obaidah al-Masri, an al Qaeda chief responsible for attacks against US troops in eastern Afghanistan
  • Abdul Rehman al-Maghribi, Moroccan, a relative of Zawahiri, possibly son-in-law, who distributed PR statements, cds, and videos and kept in contact with Arab journalists - a possible source for a Zawahiri videotape trackback
  • Khalid Habib, another al Qaeda chief in charge of the Afghan-Pakistani border, who was invovled in the planning of an assassination attempt on Musharraf and was associated with Abu Farraj al-Libbi - another Musharraf assassination planner taken out by Hellfire, hmm: pattern?

As per usual, not all sources quote the full AP article (by Munir Ahmad), so here're two interesting paragraphs left off ABC News's reporting:

"Provincial authorities said al-Qaida sympathizers took the bodies of the foreign militants believed to have been killed to bury them in the mountains near the Afghan border, thereby preventing their identification.

Pakistani Interior Minister Aftab Sherpao told The Associated Press on Wednesday that the bodies may have been taken by a local pro-Taliban cleric, Maulana Faqir Mohammed, who also is being hunted by authorities. Authorities believe he and another prominent pro-Taliban cleric survived the attack Friday."

Since there aren't any reports about new martyrs from the jihadi sites, one can't be sure if this is pr to cool off the foreign press (like ours) who'll more or less ignore acts like this if it's in the scope of actually killing al Qaeda members.

Here's a quote from Xinhua's news agency more or less claiming the same thing:

But National Assembly member from Bajur Sahibzada Haron ur Rashid rejected the government claim and media reports about the killing of foreigners and said only locals died in the attack.

"Reports about the killing of foreigners are being spread to mislead the public opinion to cool down anger among the local people," he said.

Again, my belief is that Musharraf has internal issues to resolve, particularly his PR with the local people, and the struggle between his ISI and military, in allowing this footprint-less encroachment of sovereignty. Another theory is that Musharraf's in holding pattern - keeping a tenuous balance between his constituents, military, and political party - that's allowing the US to go after Al Qaeda with the least amount of blood on Musharraf's hands. My opinion is that the internal turmoil's going to get the best of him and without successes on our part, we'll further lose Al Qaeda within the folds of Pakistan.

Top al-Qaida Operatives Believed Killed, ABC News/AP, 01/19/2006
Update 14: Top al-Qaida Operatives Believed Killed, Forbes, 01/19/2006
Pakistan probing reports of al-Qaeda members' death, Xinhua, 01/19/2006


Pakistani tribal villagers offer prayers at graves of people who were killed by U.S. strikes in Damadola on Saturday Jan 14, 2006 in the Pakistani tribal area of Bajour. Pakistani intelligence agents were hunting Wednesday, Jan. 18, 2006 for the graves of four al-Qaida militants believed killed in a U.S. missile strike whose bodies were reportedly whisked away by their comrades who survived, officials said. (AP Photo/Mohammad Zubair)

Supporter of Pakistani religious party Jamat-i-Islami takes part in an anti-U.S. rally Thursday, Jan. 19, 2006 in Peshawar, Pakistan to condemn last week U.S. airstrikes in the Pakistani tribal territory of Bajour which killed 18 people. An al-Qaida explosives and chemical weapons expert and a relative of the terror network's No. 2 leader were among three top operatives believed killed in a U.S. missile strike, Pakistani security officials said. (AP Photo /Mohammad Zubair)

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Two quotes that sum up the Pakistan situation quite well from a recent TIME article, "The Blunt Instruments of War,"one because it's from a Pentagon official who seems to get the gist of the problem of the region and the second because it's from Bruce Hoffman, an highly knowledgeable analyst on terrorism:

"I've seen intelligence reports that have the top al-Qaeda leadership all over a huge geographical area out there," says a senior Pentagon official. A lot of the intelligence, he notes, "comes from people who are deliberately trying to deceive us."

Operations that kill innocents make things worse. "It alienates precisely the population whose support you need," says Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert at Rand. "And it provides propaganda to our enemies--that our violence kills innocent women and children, so how is it different from theirs?"

They're fairly straightforward and highlight the exact two problems that the US has in prosecuting it's war against terror or, even simply, getting Al Qaeda:

1. We've got poor information and our "allies" either aren't helping or can't help us get the information (and, therefore, I'd argue, aren't our allies).  Sounds like his analysis is very similar to early retribution disinformation that various Afghani warlords gave us in 2002.

2. Our public perception is our Achilles Heel, for both the domestic and international audience: our PR is really wearing into a thin gauze-like material that's almost on par with "faith"

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Like Christopher Robin in Winnie the Pooh, Ayman al-Zawahiri was busy, probably back soon, according to news reports today, and not killed in the UAV strikes yesterday.

"Al-Zawahri was not there at the time of the attack," the Pakistani official told Reuters.

Maybe the official could clue us in to where he actually is?

The airstrikes yesterday morning destroyed three houses in a near-Afghanistan Pakistani village, killing upwards of 30 people.  Pakistan's information minister condemned the attack as thousands of locals protested the attacks.

Information Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed did not directly blame the U.S. for the attack, which killed at least 17 people, but he said the government wanted "to assure the people we will not allow such incidents to reoccur." (USA Today/AP)

Sure, he's got that power. He added:

"The US ambassador will be called to the foreign office." (Al Jazeera)

A Pakistani intelligence source said he had been told by US officials the strike was ordered based on information that al-Zawahiri and Mullah Mohammad Omar, the ousted Taliban leader, had been invited to a dinner to celebrate this week's Muslim Eid al-Adha festival. They had no confirmation, however, that either had been there at the time of the attack at about 3am on Friday (2200 GMT Thursday). Mullah Dadullah, a senior Taliban commander, said no Taliban commander had been at the dinner.  (Al Jazeera)

"I know all the 18 people killed. There was neither al Zawahri nor any other Arab among them. Rather they were all poor people of the area," Haroon Rashid, the area's National Assembly representative, was quoted as saying by the Afghan Islamic Press, a news agency based in the Pakistani border city of Peshawar. (Reuters)

"This is a big lie. ... Only our family members died in the attack," said Shah Zaman, who lost two sons and a daughter. "They dropped bombs from planes, and we were in no position to stop them, to tell them we are innocent." (AP)

President Musharraf made vague references to some incident and the Pakistani people continue to show their displeasure with the official government's attitude of putting a blurry filter on America's action in the FATA area.  Not that the Pakistani military has any more control of the area to speak of, either. 

President Pervez Musharraf, addressing local government officials in Swabi, a town to the north of Islamabad, made an oblique reference to the attack.

"There was an incident in Bajaur. We are looking into it, who did it -- people from outside have come," he said, without pointing a finger directly at the United States.

A military spokesman at U.S. Central Command in Florida said there had been no official report of an attack in Pakistan.

Anger has been building in Pakistan over repeated U.S. intrusions, and on Saturday hundreds of protesters chanted anti-American slogans at Inayat Killi [sic Inayat Qala] village, near Damadola. (Reuters)

Villagers in Damadola denied hosting al-Zawahri or any other al-Qaeda or Taliban figure, saying all the dead were local people. On Saturday, more than 8,000 tribesmen staged a peaceful protest in a nearby town to condemn the airstrike. (USA Today/AP)

"Americans have killed innocent women and children and now they are diverting attention of the world from this cruel act through the baseless claim that al-Qaeda leaders were targeted," Sahibzada Haroon ur Rashid, a lawmaker from the hard-line Jamaat-e-Islami party told the protest rally.

"This is in fact real terrorism to target innocent people, the children and the women," Haroon said. He rejected the U.S. TV reports that Ayman al-Zawahiri or any foreigner was in the area.

"Hundreds of people took part to pull dead bodies out of the rubble soon after the air strike and the people did not see any foreigner killed in the attack," the lawmaker told the huge rally. He said that the issue of the attack would also be raised inthe parliament and that he had sent a motion to the National Assembly, of which he is a member.

Sahibzada Haroon ur Rashid said all the victims of the attack were local people and condemned it as "open terrorism".

"The people will continue peaceful protests against such attacks," said Rashid.

"The people also condemn President General Pervez Musharraf's policies, which have led to such incidents. We want the (Pakistan) government to avoid pleasing the Americans." (AP)

Musharraf continues to be in a rough spot with his outlier constituents who're the real problem.  The people in the cities, modern as they are, are quite happy to ignore that the UAVs fire into what's considered redneck territory.  The anti-Musharraf, pro-Islam leaning political groups (JI, above, for example) will continue to use events like this to claim that he's giving away Pakistani sovereignty and try to shake his rule.  There've been reports that smaller gatherings have been violent.

The AP seems to be the root source of the report that Zawahiri wasn't there, with USA Today and The Age directly taking excerpts.  Also, I've updated my Google Earth placemark for this incident to include the town of Inayat Qala.

 

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Google Earth pointer to Damadola, Pakistan, where Ayman Al-Zawahiri is reported/rumored to be killed, today, in a Predator strike.

"Pakistani military sources told American ABC television that five of those killed were "high level Al-Qaeda figures", and their bodies are undergoing forensic tests for identification."

"One official said intelligence indicated a strong possibility that Zawahri was in the Pakistani village at the time of the airstrike, but there is no confirmation that he was killed.

Pakistani officials say U.S. aircraft, apparently CIA Predator drones, fired as many as 10 missiles at the residential compound. Reports indicate as many as 30 villagers, including some women and children, were killed.

The attack came in the Bajur region of Northwest Pakistan, along the Afghanistan border.

The CIA Predators carry as many as four Hellfire missiles. While some remains were reportedly recovered from the site of the attack, there was still no confirmation Friday night that Zawahri was among the dead. An intelligence official told NBC that it does have a sample of Zawahri's DNA." - MSNBC

"A doctor in the area told The Associated Press that at least 17 people were killed in the attack, but other witnesses at the scene said the death toll was higher." - CNN

Getting Zawahiri, the titular head of Al Qaeda, would mean that the most important and articulate public face of the overarching terrorist organization would be gone.  In my opinion, this would signify that we've entered officially into the "Nuisance Times," to borrow a word from the inimitable John Kerry (who ill-fatedly decided that treating the terrorist threat as a crime to be prosecuted was the right way to go) - the disparate terror groups who've been using the umbrella name of Al Qaeda will no longer need to do so nor have any reason to adhere to the specific Al Qaeda agenda. 

It's fairly clear that the American public along with their duly elected representatives in the Congress have all but forgotten about the pursuit of Al Qaeda and reports like this in the past weeks, months, or years have become a "nuisance" and more of a concern for a process of traditional legal prosecution rather than a proactive awareness on their parts. Without a singular face for the American public to point to and ask "what he mean by?" the unofficial drain on our collective psyches will become an official status as the variety of retroactive Islamists start vying for their own regional causes (the explosions in Dhaka on 12/25, for example).  With our short-term focus, attempting to rally people to keep up support for fighting a multifacted, multiagendaed Islamist threat will be very real difficulty - a reality that's been the problem from day one within our military and intelligence organizations.  Now, it's with our public.

The second prong of Zawahiri's death would be that of a sign to the Jihadist/Islamist groups - there's no focal leader to dole out poorly made videos espousing broad blandishments that have kept disgruntled muslim youth cheering on the "movement."  Without Zawahiri, the role of top propagandist will be delegated to the individual Islamist organizations - something that'll cause regionalization, specialization, and ultimately, a disconnection from an overarching goal.  The question is, when Zawahiri dies, will the idea of the Caliphate be only Bin Laden's? 

Another possibility for these events is simple hype/disinformation.  Without any ability to confirm whether or not the strikes were aimed at Zawahiri or have actually killed Zawahiri, the reporting with his name attached could be an attempt to flush out denials.

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